Potential extreme events in the Polish wind energy sector, based on historical data

Abstract

Wind energy is beginning to play a significant role in the Polish energy sector, in terms of both installed capacity and delivered energy. However, as a highly variable source, wind energy makes management of the power system complicated, especially when extreme events occur. Therefore, the objective of this paper was twofold. Firstly, it aims to simulate the operation of the Polish wind sector based on available satellite-derived wind speed data and the known spatial distribution of wind parks. Secondly, based on the created model and hourly wind speed values covering the period 01.1980–08.2017 we have analysed the statistical parameters of potential wind generation, concentrating mainly on extreme events (such as low generation and ramp rates). The results show that for an installed capacity of 5.8 GW the likelihood of generation going below 250 MWh for 1 hour is 0.26%, and, for 5 hours, is 0.1%. Ramp rates exhibit significant seasonal patterns and the highest (on an hourly time scale) can be as much as 1,295 MWh and -1,698 MWh (up and down, respectively).