Evaluation of Rainfall Distribution Based on the Precipitation Concentration Index: A Case Study over the Selected Summer Rainfall Regions of South Africa

Abstract

The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) is considered a powerful tool that can be used to analyse the spatial and temporal distribution and variability of precipitation over a region. It plays a significant role in planning and managing water resources, including monitoring and forecasting drought and flood risks. As such, the present study used the PCI to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation in summer rainfall regions covering six selected South African provinces. Specifically, this study analysed monthly precipitation data from 49 rainfall districts spanning from 1979 to 2023 and assessed the spatio-temporal variability patterns of annual, seasonal and supra-seasonal PCI values and their trends based on the Mann–Kendall trend test. Pearson’s correlation was used to evaluate the relationship between the PCI values and precipitation across the provinces. Moderate annual PCI values were observed mainly in KwaZulu-Natal and the eastern regions of the Free State and Mpumalanga provinces. A large portion of the study site exhibited irregular annual precipitation concentrations. The PCI decreased by −1.5 and −1.2 magnitudes of change during 1979–1989 and 2000–2011 and increased by 2.1 and 2.8 magnitudes between 1990–2000 and 2012–2023, respectively. Uniform precipitation concentration was mostly recorded during the December–January–February (DJF) season. The entire study area recorded moderate precipitation concentration during the March–April–May (MAM) and September–October–November (SON) seasons (with exceptions for KwaZulu-Natal (KZN)). In addition, irregular precipitation concentration dominated during the June–July–August (JJA) rainy season. All provinces except KZN recorded positive trends in annual PCI. Also, positive trends in PCI were observed during the supra-wet season across the provinces, except KZN and in parts of the Free State. Furthermore, negative trends in seasonal PCI were mostly dominant during DJF and MAM, while positive trends were mostly observed during SON and JJA rainy seasons. The annual PCI values were positively correlated with annual precipitation in KZN, Free State and Limpopo, while negative correlations were observed in Mpumalanga and North West provinces. The results presented in this study contribute to drought and flood monitoring in support of water resource management and planning.

Keywords

• precipitation concentration
• climate change
• drought
• floods
• trend