Early Prediction of Regional Red Needle Cast Outbreaks Using Climatic Data Trends and Satellite-Derived Observations

Abstract

Red needle cast (RNC), mainly caused by Phytophthora pluvialis, is a very damaging disease of the widely grown species radiata pine within New Zealand. Using a combination of satellite imagery and weather data, a novel methodology was developed to pre-visually predict the incidence of RNC on radiata pine within the Gisborne region of New Zealand over a five-year period from 2019 to 2023. Sentinel-2 satellite imagery was used to classify areas within the region as being disease-free or showing RNC expression from the difference in the red/green index (R/Gdiff) during a disease-free time of the year and the time of maximum disease expression in the upper canopy (early spring–September). Within these two classes, 1976 plots were extracted, and a classification model was used to predict disease incidence from mean monthly weather data for key variables during the 11 months prior to disease expression. The variables in the final random forest model included solar radiation, relative humidity, rainfall, and the maximum air temperature recorded during mid–late summer, which provided a pre-visual prediction of the disease 7–8 months before its peak expression. Using a hold-out test dataset, the final random forest model had an accuracy of 89% and an F1 score of 0.89. This approach can be used to mitigate the impact of RNC by focusing on early surveillance and treatment measures.

Keywords

• early detection
• disease forecast
• disease prediction
• epidemiology
• forest monitoring
• machine learning