Analysis of Forecasting Documents for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Arctic

Abstract

The tasks of forecasting the development of Russian territories, in particular the territory of the Arctic, are the most problematic due to the urgent need of the economy and management for a reliable forecast, the uncertainty of the near future caused by the turbulence of geopolitics, and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic processes, which are also not fully measurable. The purpose of the article is to present the initial grounds and forecast of the socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Arctic with a lead time up to 2023. The methodological peculiarity of the research is to take into account geopolitical, national, regional, industrial factors and development trends on the basis of using: 1) the analysis results of real and perspective global trends recorded in statistical indicators, forecast documents of the IMF, WTO, Central Bank, Ministry of Economic Development of Russia; 2) generalizations, comparisons of official forecasts and development plans of the AZRF adopted at the federal, regional levels, as well as forecasts, plans of corporations operating in the AZRF; 3) analysis of real statistical data using the author's econometric models. Given the considerable amount of analytical information received, the aspects and factors that have a key influence on the prospects of socio-economic development of the Arctic are outlined and classified according to the following levels: global, national, regional. Forecasts are made for the regions entirely located in the Arctic zone — Yamalo-Nenets, Nenets and Chukotka Autonomous okrugs, the Murmansk Oblast with an anticipation period up to 20212023. The importance of scientific forecasting in modern conditions is emphasized, encouraging reflection, new hypotheses, discussions.

Keywords

• russian arctic
• forecast
• social and economic development
• covid-19 pandemic
• special operation in ukraine