An analysis of the spatial heterogeneity of future climate change impacts in support of cross-sectoral adaptation strategies in Japan

Abstract

Addressing climate change requires cross-cutting and effective adaptation strategies. We presented a scenario-based, cross-scale, and spatially explicit framework for analyzing multiple future climate change impacts in Japan. The correlation analysis of climatic and multisectoral impact indicators showed that a complex set of factors, including climate and other indicators used in impact assessment models and how they were used in these models, influenced the correlations. Then, we harmonized and mapped the future impacts in Japan by coupling the K-means multivariate clustering analysis with the similarity search approach. Seven indicators of climate change impacts were utilized to identify the homogeneous impact zones (HIZs) at the end of the 21st century. The homogeneous impact maps of Japan were composed of six HIZs and two isolated impact clusters characterized by varying degrees and combinations of climate change impacts. Changing climates and the cooccurrence of various impacts were context-sensitive. The relationships between the impacts and their coefficient strengths determined the cooccurrence direction. The findings of this study aid us in understanding the compound climate risks, enhancing the synergies and cohesions of adaptation measures, and accelerating science-based adaptation strategies.

Keywords

• Adaptation strategy
• Climate change adaptation
• Climate change impact
• Japan
• Spatial planning