Assessing Multidomain Overlaps and Grand Ensemble Generation in CORDEX Regional Projections

Abstract

Abstract The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative has made available an enormous amount of regional climate projections in different domains worldwide. This information is crucial for the development of adaptation strategies and policy‐making. A relevant open issue in this context is assessing the potential multidomain conflicts that may result in overlapping regions and developing appropriate ensemble methods trying to make the most of all available information. This work addresses this timely topic by focusing on precipitation over the Mediterranean region, a first illustrative case study that is encompassed by both the Euro‐ and Africa‐CORDEX domains. We focus on several mean, extreme, and temporal indices and use variance decomposition to assess the separate contribution of the domain and models to the climate change signal, concluding that the contribution of the domain alone is nearly negligible (below 5% in all cases). Nevertheless, for some cases, the combined model/domain effect triggers up to 40% of the total variance.

Keywords

• CORDEX
• IPCC
• multidomain overlaps
• variance decomposition
• climate change