Ziyuan Kexue (Aug 2023)
The spatiotemporal evolution of non-grain conversion of cultivated land in southern Shaanxi Province and its driving factors
Abstract
[Objective] The purpose of this study was to explore the spatiotemporal responses of cultivated land conversion to different driving factors and their interactions in southern Shaanxi Province, to gain a more scientific and objective understanding of cultivated land non-grain conversion, which provides references for the formulation of food security policy and the guidance of appropriate non-grain conversion of cultivated land. [Methods] Based on the county-scale data of non-grain conversion of cultivated land of southern Shaanxi Province from 2005 to 2020, this study analyzed 30139 valid samples through a spatiotemporal variability model and the geographical detector model to explore the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of non-grain conversion. [Results] The results are as follows: (1) Temporally, the rate of non-grain conversion of cultivated land in southern Shaanxi showed a general upward trend, with obvious differences among cities. The spatial pattern of cultivated land conversion changed from high-low to low-high from west to east in southern Shaanxi, with Chenggu County in Hanzhong City in the west and Shangnan County and Luonan County in Shangluo City in the east as the centers, and areas with the medium-high and high conversion rates were concentrated at the periphery of the Hanzhong, Ankang, and Shangdan Basins. Generally, the spatiotemporal variation rate of non-grain conversion was high in the peripheral areas of Ankang and Shangdan Basins and low in others. (2) The temporal process of driving factors was highly dynamic, and its internal spatiotemporal interaction has neutralization effects on driving forces. The overall explanatory power of socioeconomic factors was stronger, and annual precipitation and GDP were the natural and socioeconomic factors with the highest explanatory power for the spatiotemporal variability of regional non-grain conversion of cultivated land. (3) The interactions of factors showed bivariate enhancement and non-linear enhancement effects, and there was no independent situation after the interaction. Moreover, the spatiotemporal dynamics of non-grain conversion were significantly influenced by the interaction of socioeconomic factors, and natural factors increased the driving effect of human factors. [Conclusion] We recommend that measures should be taken to address the issue of cultivated land non-grain conversion, by strengthening the construction of farmland water conservancy facilities, scientifically defining the bottom line of farmland non-grain conversion, balancing urban and rural resource investment, and creating strict land-use control institutions.
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