Invited perspectives: The volcanoes of Naples: how can the highest volcanic risk in the world be effectively mitigated?

Abstract

The Naples (southern Italy) area has the highest volcanic risk in the world due to the coexistence of three highly explosive volcanoes (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia) with extremely dense urbanisation. More than 3 million people live to within 20 kilometres from a possible eruptive vent. Mitigating such an extreme risk is made difficult because volcanic eruption forecasting is currently an empirical procedure with a very uncertain outcome. This paper starts by recalling the state of the art of eruption forecasting, and then describes the main hazards in the Neapolitan area, shortly presenting the activity and present state of its volcanoes. Then, it proceeds to suggest the most effective procedures to mitigate the extreme volcanic and associated risks. The problem is addressed in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban issues. The proposed mitigation actions are then compared with the existing emergency plans, developed by Italian Civil Protection, by highlighting their numerous, very evident faults. Our study, besides regarding the most complex and extreme situation of volcanic risk in the world, gives guidelines for assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.