The possible future changes in potential suitable habitats of Tetrastigma hemsleyanum (Vitaceae) in China predicted by an ensemble model

Abstract

Tetrastigma hemsleyanum (Vitaceae) is an endangered subtropical herbaceous perennial climbing liana mainly distributed south of the Yangtze River (China). It is widely used in medical and phylogeographic applications, and its growth is restricted to certain climate conditions. In this study, we applied ensemble modeling approaches to investigate the possible changes in potential suitable habitats of T. hemsleyanum in the future under all shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The results showed that the mean diurnal range (bio2) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18) were the most important variables affecting the potential suitable habitats of T. hemsleyanum. Currently, the area of highly suitable habitat for T. hemsleyanum is approximately 1.38 × 106 km2. The ensemble model predicted that the highly suitable habitat of T. hemsleyanum will contract under all future SSP scenarios and that the more severe the global warming is, the more highly suitable habitats will be lost. The contracted high suitable habitats ranged from 20% (SSP126, best case) to 90% (SSP585, worst case) at the end of this century. The results of this work may provide useful information for formulating conservation and natural resource management policies for T. hemsleyanum. The remained high suitable habitats under SSP585 at the end of this century projected by the current work can be selected as nature reserves.

Keywords

• Tetrastigma hemsleyanum
• Climate change
• Potentially suitable habitat
• Species distribution model
• Ensemble modeling