Preliminary Prognostication for Good Neurological Outcomes in the Early Stage of Post-Cardiac Arrest Care

Abstract

We investigated prognostic strategies for predicting good outcomes in the early stage of post-cardiac-arrest care using multiple prognostic tests that are available until 24 h after the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). A retrospective analysis was conducted on 138 out-of-hospital cardiac-arrest patients who underwent prognostic tests, including the gray–white-matter ratio (GWR-BG), the Glasgow Coma Scale motor (GCS-M) score before sedative administration, and the neuron-specific enolase (NSE) level measured at 24 h after the ROSC. We investigated the prognostic performances of the tests as single predictors and in various combination strategies. Classification and regression-tree analysis were used to provide a reliable model for the risk stratification. Out of all the patients, 55 (44.0%) had good outcomes. The NSE level showed the highest prognostic performance as a single prognostic test and provided improved specificities (>70%) and sensitivities (>98%) when used in combination strategies. Low NSE levels (≤32.1 ng/mL) and high GCS-M (≥4) scores identified good outcomes without misclassification. The overall accuracy for good outcomes was 81.8%. In comatose patients with low NSE levels or high GCS-M scores, the premature withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy should be avoided, thereby complying with the formal prognostication-strategy algorithm after at least 72 h from the ROSC.

Keywords

• out-of-hospital cardiac arrest
• prognosis
• clinical examination
• computed tomography
• neuron specific enolase