Evaluating the Forecast Skill of a Hydrometeorological Modelling System in Greece

Abstract

A hydrometeorological forecasting system has been operating at the Institute of Marine Biological Resources and Inland Waters (IMBRIW) of the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR) since September 2015. The system consists of the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model, the WRF-Hydro hydrological model, and the HEC-RAS hydraulic–hydrodynamic model. The system provides daily 120 h weather forecasts focusing on Greece (4 km horizontal resolution) and hydrological forecasts for the Spercheios and Evrotas rivers in Greece (100 m horizontal resolution), also providing flash flood inundation forecasts when needed (5 m horizontal resolution). The main aim of this study is to evaluate precipitation forecasts produced in a 4-year period (September 2015–August 2019) using measurements from meteorological stations across Greece. Water level forecasts for the Evrotas and Spercheios rivers were also evaluated using measurements from hydrological stations operated by the IMBRIW. Moreover, the forecast skill of the chained meteorological–hydrological–hydraulic operation of the system was investigated during a catastrophic flash flood in the Evrotas river. The results indicated that the system provided skillful precipitation and water level forecasts. The best evaluation results were yielded during rainy periods. They also demonstrated that timely flash flood forecasting products could benefit flood warning and emergency responses due to their efficiency and increased lead time.

Keywords

• WRF-ARW
• WRF-Hydro
• HEC-RAS
• numerical weather prediction
• hydrometeorology
• statistical evaluation