Ten Years Risk Prediction of a Major Cardiovascular Event in a Rural Block in Tamil Nadu

Abstract

Background: India has a high burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). High-risk interventions can be initiated only when individuals at high-risk have been identified. Objectives: The objective was to estimate the prevalence and the sociodemographic pattern of cardiovascular risk factors and to predict the 10 years risk of fatal and nonfatal major cardiovascular events in a rural population in Tamil Nadu. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 30 villages of a rural block in Tamil Nadu from March 2012 to February 2013 in the age group of 40-79 years attending our fixed mobile clinics using structured interview schedule and subsequently, the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk charts were used to predict the 10 years absolute risk of fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular event. Results: A total of 482 individuals were studied of which 68.3% were women and 31.7% were men. Prevalence of overweight, diabetes, and systolic hypertension was found to be 60%, 22.8%, and 34.6%, respectively. A majority (79.9%) of the study population had 10 years cardiovascular risk of <10% while only 2.5% had a risk of more than 40%. As the age advances, the proportion of participants with high-risk also increased and this trend was statistically significant (P = 0.001). Conclusion: Less than 10% of the population had a high-risk of CVD based on WHO/ISH risk score. These charts help identify the high-risk groups in the population in resource-scarce setting and thus an appropriate action can be taken.

Keywords

• Cardiovascular disease
• risk score
• World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts