A Retrospective Study on Predicting Recurrence of Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Radical Therapy

Abstract

Ruyu Han,* Leijuan Gan,* Mengran Lang,* Guangtao Li, Lu Chen, Xindi Tian, Kangwei Zhu, Liyu Sun, Tianqiang Song Department of Hepatobiliary Cancer, Liver Cancer Center, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute & Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, Tianjin’s Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Digestive Cancer, Tianjin, 300060, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Tianqiang Song, Department of Hepatobiliary Cancer, Liver Cancer Center, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute & Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, Tianjin’s Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Digestive Cancer, Tianjin, 300060, People’s Republic of China, Tel [phone], Fax [phone], Email [email protected]: This study aimed to investigate the potential benefits of radical therapy in patients with stage B disease.Patients and Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort of 437 patients diagnosed with stage B hepatocellular carcinoma, who underwent either hepatic resection (HR) or radiofrequency ablation (RFA) at the Cancer Institute and Hospital of Tianjin Medical University from May 2011 to May 2022. Multivariate COX regression analysis was performed to identify the independent prognostic factors related to recurrence-free survival (RFS). The performance of the developed nomogram was evaluated using various statistical measures, including the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).Results: Multivariate analysis revealed that tumor diameter, number of tumors, number of involved liver segments, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), carbohydrate antigen 19– 9 (CA19-9), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and systemic immune inflammation index (SII) were independent prognostic factors influencing patients’ RFS, and these factors were incorporated into the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram in the training cohort was 0.721, and the AUC at 2 and 3 years was 0.772 and 0.790, respectively. These values were appreciably higher than commonly used clinic staging systems and other predictive models. The calibration curve and DCA demonstrated good calibration and net benefit. Survival analysis comparing stage B patients who received radical treatment with stage A patients with multiple lesions did not reveal a significant difference in Kaplan-Meier survival curves (P=0.91).Conclusion: The nomogram provided a precise prediction of the recurrence for stage B hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing radical treatment. Furthermore, certain stage B patients may benefit from radical treatment.Keywords: nomogram, Barcelona clinic Liver cancer system, recurrence-free survival, hepatic resection, radiofrequency ablation

Keywords

• nomogram
• barcelona clinic liver cancer system
• recurrence-free survival
• hepatic resection
• radiofrequency ablation