Epidemiological characteristics and prediction of varicella trends in Yangpu District， Shanghai， from 2005 to 2022

Abstract

ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Yangpu District， Shanghai from 2005 to 2022， predict the trend of varicella in Yangpu District in 2023， and provide evidence for prevention and control of varicella outbreaks.MethodsInformation of varicella cases reported in Yangpu District from 2005 to 2022 was obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive statistics was used to characterize the varicella epidemiology. An autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model was established by using the number of cases per month from 2005 to2022 to predict the trend of varicella epidemics in Yangpu District in 2023. The varicella incidence in 2022 was used to evaluate the fitness of the ARIMA model.ResultsFrom January 2005 to December 2021， a total of 11 527 cases of varicella were reported in Yangpu District， Shanghai. After excluding duplicates and clinical diagnoses， 11 413 cases were included into the analysis. The annual average incidence rate was 51.87/105， the age of onset was mainly under 20 years old （66.5%）， and the occupation was mainly students （49.7%）. The ARIMA （1，1，0）×（0，1，1）12 model was constructed and showed a good fitness while using monthly reported varicella cases in 2022 for model fitting. It was predicted that 1 089 cases of varicella would be reported in Yangpu District in 2023.ConclusionIt is predicted that varicella cases in Yangpu District will increase in 2023. It is recommended to continue promoting delayed varicella vaccination to maintain a high level of vaccination rate. Before the peak of the epidemic， health education regarding varicella should be strengthened， and measures for epidemic prevention and control should be reinforced to prevent varicella outbreaks.

Keywords

• varicella
• epidemiology
• arima model
• prediction