An Adaptive Hybrid Model for Wind Power Prediction Based on the IVMD-FE-Ad-Informer

Abstract

Accurate wind power prediction can increase the utilization rate of wind power generation and maintain the stability of the power system. At present, a large number of wind power prediction studies are based on the mean square error (MSE) loss function, which generates many errors when predicting original data with random fluctuation and non-stationarity. Therefore, a hybrid model for wind power prediction named IVMD-FE-Ad-Informer, which is based on Informer with an adaptive loss function and combines improved variational mode decomposition (IVMD) and fuzzy entropy (FE), is proposed. Firstly, the original data are decomposed into K subsequences by IVMD, which possess distinct frequency domain characteristics. Secondly, the sub-series are reconstructed into new elements using FE. Then, the adaptive and robust Ad-Informer model predicts new elements and the predicted values of each element are superimposed to obtain the final results of wind power. Finally, the model is analyzed and evaluated on two real datasets collected from wind farms in China and Spain. The results demonstrate that the proposed model is superior to other models in the performance and accuracy on different datasets, and this model can effectively meet the demand for actual wind power prediction.

Keywords

• wind power prediction
• improved variational mode decomposition
• fuzzy entropy
• adaptive loss function
• Informer