Scenario Forecasting Tourist Flows during the COVID-2019 Pandemic

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to obtain a scenario forecast of the volume and rate of recovery in tourist flows, which have experienced a catastrophic decline due to restrictions imposed by the COronaVirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) threats. As a forecasting tool in conditions of insufficient initial analytical data, it is proposed to use a model based on the extrapolation of tourist flows. The forecasts were made for Russian regions included in the Interregional Association for Economic Cooperation “The Siberian Agreement”. The research results are presented in the form of four forecast scenarios calculated in the rough forecast methodology under various hypotheses about changing the input parameters of the model.

Keywords

• forecasting
• pandemic
• recovery of tourist flows
• tourism industry