Optimal control analysis of a COVID-19 and tuberculosis co-dynamics model

Abstract

Tuberculosis and COVID-19 are among the diseases with major global public health concern and great socio-economic impact. Co-infection of these two diseases is inevitable due to their geographical overlap, a potential double blow as their clinical similarities could hamper strategies to mitigate their spread and transmission dynamics. To theoretically investigate the impact of control measures on their long-term dynamics, we formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the co-infection of COVID-19 and tuberculosis. Basic properties of the tuberculosis only and COVID-19 only sub-models are investigated as well as bifurcation analysis (possibility of the co-existence of the disease-free and endemic equilibria). The disease-free and endemic equilibria are globally asymptotically stable. The model is extended into an optimal control system by incorporating five control measures. These are: tuberculosis awareness campaign, prevention against COVID-19 (e.g., face mask, physical distancing), control against co-infection, tuberculosis and COVID-19 treatment. Five strategies which are combinations of the control measures are investigated. Strategy B which focuses on COVID-19 prevention, treatment and control of co-infection yields a better outcome in terms of the number of COVID-19 cases prevented at a lower percentage of the total cost of this strategy.

Keywords

• Bifurcation
• Co-infection
• COVID-19
• Optimal control
• Reproduction number
• Tuberculosis