Forecasting China's energy demand post-COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from energy type differences and regional differences

Abstract

As the first country to restart the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic, China's fast-growing energy consumption has brought huge challenges to the energy system. In this context, ensuring a stable energy supply requires accurate estimates of energy consumption for China's post-Covid-19 pandemic economic recovery. To this end, this study uses multiple panel regression model to explore the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth from the perspective of energy sources (total energy, coal, oil, natural gas) and regional difference. The data from 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017 were selected. Our findings indicate that China economic growth has led to the largest increase for oil consumption, followed by natural gas consumption, and finally coal consumption. That is, China economic growth has led to the largest increase for oil consumption, followed by natural gas consumption, and finally coal consumption. In addition, the coefficients of regional energy consumption equations are heterogeneous. Among them, energy consumption growth in provinces with high energy consumption is most affected by economic growth, followed by provinces with low energy consumption, and finally provinces with middle energy consumption.

Keywords

• Energy consumption
• Economic growth
• China
• Regional differences
• Panel data