Epizootic Activity of Natural Plague Foci in the Russian Federation in 2012 and Prognosis for the Year of 2013

Abstract

Integrated are the data on the number of major carriers and vectors as well as the epizootic activity of natural foci of plague of different types in the territory of Russia in 2012. Submitted is the short-term forecast of epizootic situation for 2013. Analyzed are the reasons of current low epizootic activity of plain natural foci of plague. The role of climatic factors in the development of long inter-epizootic periods in plague natural foci in the Pre-Caucasus, Pre-Caspian regions and Siberia is discussed. Assessed is the change of potential epidemiologic hazard of plague-enzootic territories under the current warming of climate. The long-term forecast of epizootic activity of natural plague foci for the period of up to 2020 is substantiated.

Keywords

• природные очаги чумы
• эпизоотическая активность
• численность носителей и переносчиков чумы
• изменение климата
• долгосрочный и краткосрочный эпизоотологический прогноз
• natural plague foci
• epizootic activity
• number of carriers and transmitters of plague
• climate change
• short-term and long-term epizootiological forecast