Prediction of ground subsidence due to underground mining through time using multilayer feed-forward artificial neural networks and back-propagation algorithm – case study at Mong Duong underground coal mine (Vietnam)

Abstract

The paper is devoted to studying the possibility of using artificial neural networks (ANN) to estimate ground subsidence caused by underground mining. The experiments showed that the most suitable network structure is a network with three layers of perceptrons and four neurons in the hidden layer with the back propagation algorithm (BP) as a training algorithm. The subsidence observation data in the Mong Duong underground coal mine and other parameters, including: (1) the distance from the centre of the stope to the ground monitoring points; (2) the volume of mined-out space; (3) the positions of the ground points in the direction of the main cross-section of the trough; and (4) the time (presented by cycle number), were used as the input data for the ANN. The findings showed that the selected model was suitable for predicting subsidence along the main profile within the subsidence trough. The prediction accuracy depended on the number of cycles used for the network training as well as the time interval between the predicted cycle and the last cycle in the training dataset. When the number of monitoring cycles used for the network training was greater than eight, the largest values of RMS and MAE were less than 10 % compared to the actual maximum subsidence value for each cycle. If the network training was less than eight cycles, the results of prediction did not meet the accuracy requirements.

Keywords

• underground mining
• subsidence trough
• subsidence prediction
• artificial neural network
• back propagation