Crash Prediction Models and the Factors That Influence Cycle Safety

Abstract

An increase in cycling in our cities and towns can bring many benefits, including healthier people, reduced emissions from motor vehicles, reduced parking demand and less traffic congestion. A major deterrent to the taking up of cycling, however, is the increased risk of having a crash compared with travelling as a driver or passenger in a motor vehicle. This paper presents research findings from three studies focused on understanding and reducing the risk of on-road cycle crashes. The first study focuses on the relationship between motor vehicle flow, cycle flow and crashes. The key finding is that as cycle volumes increase, the risk per individual cyclist reduces – the ‘safety in numbers’ effect. The second study focuses on the factors and interventions that influence cycle safety, other than cycle flows. This study involved the development of crash models for mid-block road links in Christchurch, New Zealand, and looks at factors such as provision of cycle lanes, kerbside parking demand, number of access-ways, speed of traffic and presence of a flush (painted) median. The third study, on the effectiveness of cycle facilities at intersections, looks at the relationship between the various cycle facilities installed at traffic signals and crashes. Data on cycle facilities, general road layout (e.g., number of traffic lanes and intersection depth), crash occurrence and traffic flows have been collected at 200 traffic signals in Auckland, Christchurch, Dunedin and Adelaide.