Transformation of the Economic and Financial Structures of the World: the Impact of Growing Shocks of Catastrophes

Abstract

The characteristic of a supervolatile “disaster economy” is given, in which the number of shocks caused by natural and man-made disasters is growing. The factors of creating such an economy at the global level are disclosed. The review of discussions about the future of the world (economy, finance) after the pandemic - 2020 is made. New longterm trends emerging in such an economy and the deep changes associated with them in the economic and financial structures of the world and the West are forecasted. These trends include: the collective desire for greater autonomy of households and, accordingly, changes in their demand (growth of stocks, reserves, decrease in demand for rental assets, more desire for personal property, for the acquisition of equipment and technologies that provide autonomy, development of offices at home and the transition to a different life model (to be the most at home – the least in the office and in the public space); the digitalization of households; the increasing individualization of demand for products and services; deagglomeration (living in suburbs or satellite cities); increased mobility; increased demand for goods and services related to the protection of life and health. The global trends in the economic / financial behavior of countries are disclosed in detail: protectionism; government policy to keep “the economy on a respirator”; changes in economic ideology, in its “mainstream”; the inevitable emergence of the concept of “economic sacrifice”; growing volatility of the global economy and global finance. In particular, ahead: the development of the ideology of the “economy of fear”; demonstration of a new balance between collectivism and individualism; revaluation of the models of capitalism existing in different countries; ideological revolution in global finance. The possibilities of an unfavorable scenario in the global economy and a strong challenge that still need to be answered are shown - is development or destruction ahead?

Keywords

• global finance
• world economy
• post-pandemic world
• natural disasters
• risks
• structural changes
• economics of disasters