Model for preventing bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises in force majeure circumstances

Abstract

Given rapid changes in global financial and economic processes caused by rapid transformations in the institutional environment and the onset of force majeure circumstances, there is a need to develop new approaches to assessing the level of bankruptcy. Most models that estimate the probability of enterprise bankruptcy are based on internal information, while external information is used to a limited extent. The growing threat of force majeure requires using not only the existing discrete models but also those that consider the external environment of enterprises when assessing the probability of bankruptcy. The purpose of this study is to develop a model for preventingbankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises in force majeure conditions based on the use of artificial intelligence methods ‒ the theory of fuzzy logic– which allows for a comprehensive assessment of bankruptcy prevention. The paper uses analytical data from the World Bank. The model consists of interrelated groups of factors: organizational, informational and legal, and economic. As a result, a comprehensive indicator of prevention of corporate bankruptcies (D) was calculated on a neurolinguistic scale from 0 to 10; the indicator was estimated for Ukraine (5.644) and Romania (4.520) (as countries close in terms of economic and geopolitical development). The simulation results show that the level of prevention of enterprises’ bankruptcy in Ukraine falls into the average interval.

Keywords

• bankruptcy
• enterprise
• management
• measures
• model
• theory of fuzzy logic