Predictability of Cardiovascular Risk Scores for Carotid Atherosclerosis in Community-Dwelling Middle-Aged and Elderly Adults

Abstract

Background: The assessment of future risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is strongly recommended for all asymptomatic adults without CVD history. Carotid atherosclerosis (CA) is a preclinical phenotype of CVDs. However, data on estimated future CVD risks with respect to preclinical atherosclerosis are limited. This community-based study aimed to assess the relationships between predicted CVD risks and CA. Methods: We enrolled 3908 subjects aged 40–74 years without CVD history and calculated their 10-year CVD risks using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE). Carotid plaque (CP) at the extracranial carotid arteries was determined by high-resolution B-mode ultrasonography and further classified into mild or advanced CA. Results: The means of FRS for CP-negative and mild and advanced CA were 9.0%, 14.4%, and 22.1%, respectively (p-value p-value 2 = 8.45 [p = 0.49] and 10.49 [p = 0.31], respectively). Conclusions: Estimated future CVD risks were significantly correlated with risks of having CA. Both FRS and PCE had good discrimination for the presences of CP and advanced CA.

Keywords

• carotid atherosclerosis
• carotid ultrasonography
• community-based study
• Framingham Risk Score
• Pooled Cohort Equations
• risk prediction