Assessment of LULC change and its impact on Surface Runoff using SCS-CN method for Noakhali Region, Bangladesh

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) change detection and its subsequent impact on hydrology are of significant importance in the field of urban planning and the sustainable management of water and land resources. The primary objective of this research work is to illustrate LULC map in a specific study area, which encompasses approximately 316.7 km² in the Noakhali region. Additionally, this study tries to examine the enduring impacts of LULC changes on surface runoff within the specified area. In order to achieve this goal, the analysis of LULC change trends in the region was conducted using Landsat OLI/TM data from 2000 to 2020. The analysis focused on five distinct classes: built-up land, vacant land, farmland, vegetation, and waterbodies. The research employs the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) model to evaluate the influence of LULC changes on surface runoff. Notably, the findings indicate a substantial increase in built-up areas from 1.05% in 2000 to 11.21% in 2020. This urban expansion is strongly correlated with a notable rise in surface runoff, as evidenced by a high correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.98) between urban expansion and modelled runoff depth. The observed increase in impervious urban areas contributes to a 2.65% rise in average runoff from 2000 to 2020, equivalent to an 8.96 mm increment in average runoff. The study underscores the profound implications for managing urban storm floods and designing urban areas, especially in rapidly expanding cities globally, with a focus on developing nations. The insights gained offer valuable information for informed decision-making in sustainable urban development and water resource management, not only in the Noakhali region but also beyond.

Keywords

• lulc
• urbanization
• surface runoff
• return period
• random forest
• gis
• scs-cn