Ecological correlates and predictors of Lassa fever incidence in Ondo State, Nigeria 2017–2021: an emerging urban trend

Abstract

Abstract Lassa fever (LF) is prevalent in many West African countries, including Nigeria. Efforts to combat LF have primarily focused on rural areas where interactions between rodents and humans are common. However, recent studies indicate a shift in its occurrence from rural to urban areas. We analysed secondary data of reported LF outbreaks from 2017 to 2021 in Ondo State, Nigeria to identify the distribution pattern, ecological variations, and other determinants of disease spread from the ward level using nearest neighbour statistics and regression analysis. Data utilised include LF incidence, ecological variables involving population, nighttime light intensity, vegetation, temperature, market presence, road length, and building area coverage. ArcGIS Pro 3.0 software was employed for spatial analysis. Results revealed spatio-temporal clustering of LF incidents between 2017 and 2021, with an increasing trend followed by a decline in 2021. All wards in Owo Local Government Area were identified as LF hotspots. The ecological variables exhibited significant correlations with the number of LF cases in the wards, except for maximum temperature. Notably, these variables varied significantly between wards with confirmed LF and those without. Therefore, it is important to prioritise strategies for mitigating LF outbreaks in urban areas of Nigeria and other LF-endemic countries.