Supervised Learning Models for the Preliminary Detection of COVID-19 in Patients Using Demographic and Epidemiological Parameters

Abstract

The World Health Organization labelled the new COVID-19 breakout a public health crisis of worldwide concern on 30 January 2020, and it was named the new global pandemic in March 2020. It has had catastrophic consequences on the world economy and well-being of people and has put a tremendous strain on already-scarce healthcare systems globally, particularly in underdeveloped countries. Over 11 billion vaccine doses have already been administered worldwide, and the benefits of these vaccinations will take some time to appear. Today, the only practical approach to diagnosing COVID-19 is through the RT-PCR and RAT tests, which have sometimes been known to give unreliable results. Timely diagnosis and implementation of precautionary measures will likely improve the survival outcome and decrease the fatality rates. In this study, we propose an innovative way to predict COVID-19 with the help of alternative non-clinical methods such as supervised machine learning models to identify the patients at risk based on their characteristic parameters and underlying comorbidities. Medical records of patients from Mexico admitted between 23 January 2020 and 26 March 2022, were chosen for this purpose. Among several supervised machine learning approaches tested, the XGBoost model achieved the best results with an accuracy of 92%. It is an easy, non-invasive, inexpensive, instant and accurate way of forecasting those at risk of contracting the virus. However, it is pretty early to deduce that this method can be used as an alternative in the clinical diagnosis of coronavirus cases.

Keywords

• COVID-19 diagnosis
• machine learning
• data-driven approaches
• SMOTE
• SHAP
• LIME