A new nomogram to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute decompensated chronic heart failure and diabetes after 48 Hours of Intensive Care Unit

Abstract

Abstract Background The study set out to develop an accurate and clinically valuable prognostic nomogram to assess the risk of in-hospital death in patients with acute decompensated chronic heart failure (ADCHF) and diabetes. Methods We extracted clinical data of patients diagnosed with ADCHF and diabetes from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database. Risk variables were selected utilizing least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis, and were included in multivariate logistic regression and presented in nomogram. bootstrap was used for internal validation. The discriminative power and predictive accuracy of the nomogram were estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Among 867 patients with ADCHF and diabetes, In-hospital death occurred in 81 (9.3%) patients. Age, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, red blood cell distribution width, shock, β-blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers, assisted ventilation, and blood urea nitrogen were brought into the nomogram model. The calibration curves suggested that the nomogram was well calibrated. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.873 (95% CI: 0.834–0.911), which was higher that of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II [0.761 (95% CI: 0.711–0.810)] and sequential organ failure assessment score [0.699 (95% CI: 0.642–0.756)], and Guidelines-Heart Failure score [0.782 (95% CI: 0.731–0.835)], indicating that the nomogram had better ability to predict in-hospital mortality. In addition, the internally validated C-index was 0.857 (95% CI: 0.825–0.891), which again verified the validity of this model. Conclusions This study constructed a simple and accurate nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with ADCHF and diabetes, especially in those who admitted to the intensive care unit for more than 48 hours, which contributed clinicians to assess the risk and individualize the treatment of patients, thereby reducing in-hospital mortality.

Keywords

• Acute decompensated chronic heart failure
• Diabetes
• Mortality
• Nomogram
• Prediction model