Temporal trends in cross-country inequalities of early-onset pancreatic cancer: a comprehensive analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021

Abstract

Abstract By 2040, pancreatic cancer is expected to become the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the U.S., with early-onset pancreatic cancer (EOPC) cases rising among adolescents and young adults. This study uses the global burden of disease (GBD) 2021 dataset to examine global, regional, and national EOPC trends and predicts the burden through 2050. The analysis covers EOPC burden from 1990 to 2021, focusing on age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR). Annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated via joinpoint regression. Clustering and frontier analysis based on the sociodemographic index (SDI) assessed the link between development levels and health outcomes. We used WHO-recommended health equity methods to quantify EOPC burden disparities and applied a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to project trends. In 2021, EOPC cases rose to 42,254, a 73% increase from 1990, while deaths reached 26,996, up 57%. Although ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR declined, ASPR rose (EAPC = 0.1). Central and Eastern Europe had the highest EOPC burden, with the fastest growth in Australasia (EAPC = 2.78) and Western Sub-Saharan Africa (EAPC = 2.25). Males had about double the burden of females, though female prevalence increased. The widening gap in health burden between low- and high-SDI regions is especially concerning. While EOPC currently affects high-SDI countries the most, there is a clear trend over time showing a gradual shift of EOPC burden towards low-SDI countries. By 2050, ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR are projected to stabilize, with cases increasing until 2036, then decreasing. High-SDI countries bear a disproportionately high EOPC burden, with significant diagnostic and management challenges, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Rising global EOPC prevalence highlights the need to identify burden differences and risk factors across countries to develop targeted prevention and control strategies.

Keywords

• Early-onset pancreatic cancer
• Global burden of disease study 2021
• Epidemiological trends
• Future predictions
• Sociodemographic index analysis
• Health inequalities