Scale‐Dependent Drivers of Air‐Sea CO2 Flux Variability

Abstract

Abstract In climate studies, it is crucial to distinguish between changes caused by natural variability and those resulting from external forcing. Here we use a suite of numerical experiments based on the ECCO‐Darwin ocean biogeochemistry model to separate the impact of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) growth rate and climate on the ocean carbon sink — with a goal of disentangling the space‐time variability of the dominant drivers. When globally integrated, the variable atmospheric growth rate and climate exhibit similar magnitude impacts on ocean carbon uptake. At local scales, interannual variability in air‐sea CO2 flux is dominated by climate. The implications of our study for real‐world ocean observing systems are clear: in order to detect future changes in the ocean sink due to slowing atmospheric CO2 growth rates, better observing systems and constraints on climate‐driven ocean variability are required.