Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System Derived from Meta-Analyses of Papillary Thyroid Cancer

Abstract

Background The aim of this study was to develop a scoring system to stratify the risk of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) and to select the proper management. Methods We performed a systematic search of MEDLINE and Embase. Data regarding patients’ prognoses were obtained from the included studies. Odds ratios (ORs) with statistical significance were extracted from the publications. To generate a risk scoring system (RSS), ORs were summed (RSS1), and summed after natural-logarithmic transformation (RSS2). RSS1 and RSS2 were compared to the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system and the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines for thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid carcinoma. Results Five meta-analyses were eligible for inclusion in the study. Eight variables (sex, tumour size, extrathyroidal extension, BRAF mutation, TERT mutation, histologic subtype, lymph node metastasis, and distant metastasis) were included. RSS1 was the best of the analysed models. Conclusion We developed and validated a new RSS derived from previous meta-analyses for patients with PTC. This RSS seems to be superior to previously published systems.

Keywords

• thyroid cancer, papillary
• prognosis
• recurrence