Modelling of the public health costs of fine particulate matter and results for Finland in 2015

Abstract

We have developed an integrated assessment tool that can be used for evaluating the public health costs caused by the concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in ambient air. The model can be used to assess the impacts of various alternative air quality abatement measures, policies and strategies. The model has been applied to evaluate the costs of the domestic emissions that influence the concentrations of PM2.5 in Finland in 2015. The model includes the impacts on human health; however, it does not address the impacts on climate change or the state of the environment. First, the national Finnish emissions were evaluated using the Finnish Regional Emission Scenarios (FRESs) model on a resolution of 250×250 m2 for the whole of Finland. Second, the atmospheric dispersion was analysed by using the chemical transport model, namely the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) model, and the source receptor matrices contained in the FRES model. Third, the health impacts were assessed by combining the spatially resolved concentration and population data sets and by analysing the impacts for various health outcomes. Fourth, the economic impacts of the health outcomes were evaluated. The model can be used to evaluate the costs of the health damages for various emission source categories and for a unit of emissions of PM2.5. It was found that the economic benefits, in terms of avoided public health costs, were largest for measures that will reduce the emissions of (i) road transport, (ii) non-road vehicles and machinery, and (iii) residential wood combustion. The reduction in the precursor emissions of PM2.5 resulted in clearly lower benefits when compared with directly reducing the emissions of PM2.5. We have also designed a user-friendly, web-based assessment tool that is open access.