The HEAT-ALARM Project: Development of a Heat–Health Warning System in Greece

Abstract

Europe has been experiencing an increasing number of sweltering heat waves in recent years. This run of hot extremes induces a significant impact on the human environment, especially in terms of excess mortality, highlighting the urgent need for improved heat–health action planning. This is particularly true in countries situated in the eastern Mediterranean, which is considered a climate change hot spot. To increase preparedness and response to overheating risks, heat–health warning systems (HHWSs) are of vital importance. In this direction, the principal aim of the HEAT-ALARM research project is to provide a novel scientific and technological framework for the development of efficient HHWSs, employing Greece as a testbed. Going beyond the simple notion that outdoor meteorological conditions alone can adequately describe the heat–health nexus, a sophisticated human-biometeorological index, the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET), is used. Advanced statistical models and tools are employed in order to establish a clear link between mPET and excess mortality at regional-unit administrative level. Moreover, urban climate factors produced by combining remote sensing and geographical information system techniques are incorporated into the HHWS via a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. The latter includes a scheme that combines the parameterization and modeling of building effects and energy, respectively, in order to account for the urban indoor thermal conditions and the intra-urban differential heat exposure within the five highest populated cities of Greece (Athens, Thessaloniki, Patras, Heraklion and Larissa). Further, the human body’s acclimatization ability is considered, as well as the physiological characteristics of different vulnerable groups of people, including the elderly, women and outdoor workers. The current paper describes the scientific background of HEAT-ALARM and provides preliminary results associated with the project’s realization.

Keywords

• extreme heat
• human health
• human-biometeorology
• heat-related epidemiology
• mPET
• warning system