آب و فاضلاب (Jan 2020)
Identification and Prioritizing Risk of Rural Water and Wastewater Projects Using Multi-Attribute Decision Making Methods in Fuzzy Environment (Case Study: Rural Water and Sewage Projects in Guilan)
Abstract
Large and complex infrastructural projects, especially water and wastewater projects always exposed to various internal and external risks. Given the increasing volume and complexity of rural water and wastewater projects, the constraints on funding and resources required their success in identifying, assessing, prioritizing and managing these risks. In this research, using research literature, checklist, experts, and expert opinions, the risks in rural and rural sewage projects in Gilan identified based on the 10 areas of the project management knowledge standard. The ranking indexes in this study include two parts of the primary and secondary indices: 16 effective risk factors among 60 risks, using the initial indicators based on the probability of occurrence and the degree of risk impact on the initial indexes of the project (time, cost, quality, performance) Determined. In the next step, based on additional indicators, the amount of exposure to risk, the level of manageability, the proximity of the occurrence of risk, the socio-economic effects and the environmental impacts (which are proportional to the climate and geographical area studied), are used by two methods of fuzzy topsization and hierarchical analysis Fuzzy has been evaluated for project risks. Finally, by integrating the results with simple averaging, the final ranking of the risks specified. The result of the research showed that the risk of insufficient funding at the due time chosed as the most important risk. In addition, the risk of non-payment of time claims of contractors and work force with a mean score of 2 and the risk of not using feedback results in quality control and implementation with a mean score of 3.5 were in the next priorities. The results of the research show that the rural water and Wastewater Company of Guilan should be adopt special measures for the required budget in order to manage the identified risks, and to conduct more detailed studies of validation in various projects in the preparatory phases. . It also pledges to pay in due time claims and analysis in control and quality and implementation.
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