Changes in air pollutant emissions in China during two clean-air action periods derived from the newly developed Inversed Emission Inventory for Chinese Air Quality (CAQIEI)

Abstract

A new long-term emission inventory called the Inversed Emission Inventory for Chinese Air Quality (CAQIEI) was developed in this study by assimilating surface observations from the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre (CNEMC) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System. This inventory contains the constrained monthly emissions of NOx, SO2, CO, primary PM2.5, primary PM10, and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) in China from 2013 to 2020, with a horizontal resolution of 15 km × 15 km. This paper documents detailed descriptions of the assimilation system and the evaluation results for the emission inventory. The results suggest that CAQIEI can effectively reduce the biases in the a priori emission inventory, with the normalized mean biases ranging from −9.1 % to 9.5 % in the a posteriori simulation, which are significantly reduced from the biases in the a priori simulations (−45.6 % to 93.8 %). The calculated root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) (0.3 mg m−3 for CO and 9.4–21.1 µg m3 for other species, on the monthly scale) and correlation coefficients (0.76–0.94) were also improved from the a priori simulations, demonstrating good performance of the data assimilation system. Based on CAQIEI, we estimated China's total emissions (including both natural and anthropogenic emissions) of the six species in 2015 to be as follows: 25.2 Tg of NOx, 17.8 Tg of SO2, 465.4 Tg of CO, 15.0 Tg of PM2.5, 40.1 Tg of PM10, and 46.0 Tg of NMVOCs. From 2015 to 2020, the total emissions decreased by 54.1 % for SO2, 44.4 % for PM2.5, 33.6 % for PM10, 35.7 % for CO, and 15.1 % for NOx but increased by 21.0 % for NMVOCs. It is also estimated that the emission reductions were larger during 2018–2020 (from −26.6 % to −4.5 %) than during 2015–2017 (from −23.8 % to 27.6 %) for most of the species. In particular, the total Chinese NOx and NMVOC emissions were shown to increase during 2015–2017, especially over the Fenwei Plain area (FW), where the emissions of particulate matter (PM) also increased. The situation changed during 2018–2020, when the upward trends were contained and reversed to downward trends for the total emissions of both NOx and NMVOCs and the PM emissions over FW. This suggests that the emission control policies may be improved in the 2018–2020 action plan. We also compared CAQIEI with other air pollutant emission inventories in China, which verified our inversion results in terms of the total emissions of NOx, SO2, and NMVOCs and more importantly identified the potential uncertainties in current emission inventories. Firstly, CAQIEI suggested higher CO emissions in China, with CO emissions estimated by CAQIEI (426.8 Tg) being more than twice the amounts in previous inventories (120.7–237.7 Tg). Significantly higher emissions were also suggested over western and northeastern China for the other air pollutants. Secondly, CAQIEI suggested higher NMVOC emissions than previous emission inventories by about 30.4 %–81.4 % over the North China Plain (NCP) but suggested lower NMVOC emissions by about 27.6 %–0.0 % over southeastern China (SE). Thirdly, CAQIEI suggested lower emission reduction rates during 2015–2018 than previous emission inventories for most species, except for CO. In particular, China's NMVOC emissions were shown to have increased by 26.6 % from 2015 to 2018, especially over NCP (by 38.0 %), northeastern China (by 38.3 %), and central China (60.0 %). These results provide us with new insights into the complex variations in air pollutant emissions in China during two recent clean-air actions, which has the potential to improve our understanding of air pollutant emissions in China and their impacts on air quality. All of the datasets are available at https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.13151 (Kong et al., 2023a).