Dynamics of Income Distribution During Targeted Subsidies Program: A Micro-Simulation Approach with Consideration of Purchasing Powers

Abstract

In 2010, an extensive program of cutting subsidies was implemented in Iran; and at the same time, a cash subsidy was redistributed to vast majority of country population. One announced goal of this plan was to improve income distribution. In this study, we evaluate the effects of targeted subsidy program on income distribution. This is important because the program is to be continuing and studies such as this one may be useful for identifying possible issues to avoid future drawbacks. To achieve this, using the data of "Household Income and Expenditure Survey" by Statistical Center of Iran, we run an Oxaca-Blinder micro-simulation model during the years before and after the implementation of the first phase of this policy. In this model, mitigations are provided for sampling error, differences in regional price index and the coexistence of sanctions. Based on our results, while distribution of expenditures is sharply more equal after 2010, the simulated purchasing powers are not so; moreover, more equitable distribution of expenditures is mostly because of losing opportunities.

Keywords

• cutting subsidies
• income distribution
• purchasing power distribution
• targeted policy