Redai dili (Sep 2022)
Spatiotemporal Evolution and Formation Mechanism of Missing-Person Incidents in the United States
Abstract
The problem of missing persons is a major global challenge, which causes serious harm to their families and societies. For this study, we collected 9,193 U.S. missing-persons records for the years 1996-2021 from the Doe Network platform. We used mathematical statistics and Moran's I index to analyze the socio-demographic characteristics, spatio-temporal distribution and its evolution patterns. Then the geodetector was applied to conduct an in-depth analysis of the influencing factors in socio-cultural, economic and demographic aspects. Based on above findings, a sociological theory of the formation mechanism of the missing-person phenomenon in the United States was proposed. Major findings included: (1) With age increasing, the number of missing persons initially increased and then dropped gradually. The highest missing rate was found among adolescents (13-18 years old) and adults (19-59 years old). Although more males than females were reported missing, the high-incidence period of males lagged slightly behind that of females. The high missing rate among adolescent females was linked to sexual crimes, including sex trafficking and rape, while that of adult men tended to be caused by family discord or debt problems. Among racial groups, black people faced the greatest risk of going missing. (2) From 1996, the number of missing-person incidents initially showed a wave upward trended and then fell sharply, after peaking in 2017, because of a series of immigration regulations. In 2020, it declined dramatically again, due to COVID-19. Influenced by the temperature, school holidays, and festivals, most people were reported missing during the months of June, August, and December. Only few missing incidents happened between February and April. (3) Spatially, at the state level, the missing population distribution decreased from the coastal border area to the inland area; over time, areas with a great number of missing-person incidents advanced simultaneously from the eastern and western coastal areas and the southern US-Mexico border to US inland areas. At the county level, they were concentrated on the edge and scattered internally. (4) Missing-person incidents were caused by the interaction of multiple factors; regional population mobility, fertility rate, and the number of vulnerable people had a positive impact on numbers of missing people, while per capital GDP had a negative impact. The power of population-based environmental factors was significantly enhanced after be interacted with social and economic factors, on explaining the missing-person spatial distribution, all of which were above 80%. (5) The underlying mechanism of missing-person incidents could be understood from the perspective of "social anomie". In other words, the disconnect between social goals and means led to social anomie, which then induced deviant behavior, including abduction, murder, and running away from home, increasing the likelihood of missing-person incidents. Finally, we offered suggestions for disappearance prevention and further study directions. The findings provided a basic understanding of the missing-person phenomenon, contributing to global scientific information, which could aid in preventing missing-person incidents.
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