A Hybrid MCDM Model for Evaluating the Market-Oriented Business Regulatory Risk of Power Grid Enterprises Based on the Bayesian Best-Worst Method and MARCOS Approach

Abstract

As a result of the deepening of China’s power system reform, the market-oriented business development of power grid enterprises is in full swing. However, most of the existing research has focused on the regulatory risks of the regulatory business for power grid enterprises, while ignoring the regulatory risks faced by market-oriented businesses. In order to promote the sustainable development of market-oriented business, a comprehensive regulatory risk assessment framework was constructed for the market business of power grid enterprises. First, the risk assessment index system was constructed from the perspectives of policy risk, business isolation risk, market risk, and safety risk. Then, a novel hybrid multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model based on the Bayesian best-worst method and the measurement alternatives and ranking according to the compromise solution approach, was adopted. Finally, eight market-oriented businesses were selected as case studies. The result indicates that organizational isolation risk and operational security risk are the key regulatory risks of the market-oriented business for power grid enterprises. Compared with two other MCDM models, the proposed hybrid MCDM model has good applicability and effectiveness for risk evaluation of the regulatory business. The results of this research can provide support for power enterprises to deal with market-oriented business supervision, and can also provide a reference for power industry regulators.

Keywords

• market-oriented business
• regulatory risk
• Bayesian best-worst method
• MARCOS approach