Use of learning curve to explore the competition between renewables and conventional fossil fuel power technologies in China

Abstract

In order to efficiently mitigate greenhouse gas emissions at the global level, renewables have emerged to help build a less carbon-intensive and more sustainable energy system worldwide. The competition between renewables and conventional fossil fuel power technologies remains critical for energy policy making and planning. This work is carried out based on the case in China and aims to provide suggestions on how to guide balanced development between renewables and conventional energy sources to obtain the best benefits. In the analytical case of this paper, onshore wind and solar photovoltaic are selected as representatives of renewable energy, mainly due to their remarkable contribution to the energy transition in China. Given the progressive nature of renewable technology innovation, a so-called learning curve approach is utilized to represent the relationship between cost reduction and performance improvement of technology. A scenario-based study framework is then constructed to make renewables and conventional fossil fuel power technologies compete with each other to meet the electricity requirement from the present to 2050. The results show that coal-fired power exhibits highly efficient generation capability and will still dominate the electricity sector for a long time in the future. Nevertheless, solar photovoltaic presents huge potential to eventually substitute for conventional fossil fuel and become dominant in the future energy system because of its continuous technology cost reduction.

Keywords

• Learning curve
• Renewables
• Fossil fuel power
• Onshore wind
• Solar photovoltaic
• Coal-fired power