Risk assessment of complex engineering project based on fuzzy Petri net under the perspective of vulnerability

Abstract

Traditional engineering risk management has been unable to adapt to the complexity and variability due to its constituent elements and dynamic nature of internal and external environments. Vulnerability, as a concept closely related to risk, has been neglected in the traditional risk management due to its hidden characteristics. This study attempts to quantify and evaluate vulnerabilities of complex engineering projects independently and explore the transmission mechanism between risk and vulnerability factors. Twenty different types of large-scale engineering projects in China were selected as case studies from the Mega Project Case Study Center (MPCSC) of Tongji University. Vulnerability and risk factors of each project were identified and analysed. A mechanism model was developed to explore the impacts of vulnerabilities and risks through ta Fuzzy Petri Net. Four main vulnerability-risk critical paths were identified through the reverse labelling method. The overall evaluation of engineering project risks considering the impacts of vulnerabilities is the highlight of this paper. This study interprets the cognition and evaluation of complex engineering risks from a new perspective, enriches the connotation of engineering risk management, and provides a reference for risk management and decisionmaking of complex engineering projects.

Keywords

• complex engineering project
• risk assessment
• vulnerability
• fuzzy Petri net
• project risk management