The combined effects of anthropogenic and climate change on river flow alterations in the Southern Caspian Sea Iran

Abstract

In recent years, the effects of human activities and climate change on river flow patterns have become a major concern worldwide. This is particularly true in the southern Caspian Sea (SCS) region of Iran, where increasing water-intensive socio-economic development and climate change have significantly altered river flow regimes. To better understand these changes, this study employs two nonparametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall method (MK3) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), to examine spatial and temporal changes in hydrometeorological variables in the SCS. The study also evaluates the impact of human activities and climate change on river flow alteration using elasticity-based methods and the Budyko hypothesis in 40 rivers on the closest gauges to the Caspian Sea. The results indicate an alarming trend of increasing temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and decreasing river flows in the SCS region. In particular, human activities were found to be responsible for around 91.7 % of the change on average, resulting in a significant decline in inflow to the Caspian Sea by about 3216 MCM annually. This declining trend in inflow could potentially exacerbate the eutrophication conditions in the Sea and negatively impact its ecosystem and economics. Therefore, appropriate measures need to be taken to address these environmental and socio-economic issues in the southern Caspian Sea region.

Keywords

• Anthropogenic activities
• Climate change
• Budyko framework
• Socio-Hydrology
• River flow alteration
• Caspian sea