Post-pandemic Long-term Energy Demand Forecasting Using Leap Software in the Páramo De Santurbán: the Case of Pamplona North De Santander

Abstract

In this study, energy demand forecasts for electricity and heat consumption were made in Pamplona-Nort of Santander in the residential sector of the economy. Three different forecast scenarios (from 2018 to 2040) were simulated in the Long-Range Alternative Energy Planning model. The first scenario was calling usual trend, considered average growth rate of historical demand data. The second scenario was energy efficiency based on the energy intensity indicator agreed upon in the Program for the Rational and Efficient Use of Energy, which is a public policy guideline to promote the best use of energy resources (electric stoves, use of panels photovoltaics and other energy sources). Finally, the third scenario was post-COVID-19 trending, which was based on economic activity degree of openness of 82 %, at the end of 2020 and 100 % openness was reached in the fourth quarter of 2021. This COVID-19 projection was carried out in the absence of similar preceding events, which were accompanied by a statistical history. The results obtained in growth forecasts are the same as those that were incorporated in the energy demand projection in the national energy plan to 2050. Estimations from each of these scenarios were compared using data from a survey realized in Pamplona. The results of this study suggest a growth close to the national average. However, energy fuel mix will change, such that electricity will be the most highly consumed energy form followed by LPG, natural gas, and wood.