An economic and econometric study of the response of agricultural investment to economic shocks in Iraq for the period [2004q1-2020q4]

Abstract

This manuscript aims to identify the relative importance of monetary and fiscal policies on the value of agricultural investment in Iraq, using Vector Error Correction Model [VECM], the impulse response function [IFC], and analysis of variance [VDCs] and applying it using quarterly data for the period 2004q1-2020q4, the most important results that the fiscal and monetary policy in Iraq has a crucial role for agricultural investment as the main tool through which the country's oil wealth is transformed into economic results and distributed for the benefit of its population, but the volatility of oil revenues poses a challenge to fiscal policy in preventing the transformation of revenue volatility into fluctuations in public spending that could Destabilize the economy and reduce the efficiency of government spending, the research recommended :Diversifying the base of the Iraqi economy, which depends mainly at the present time on oil revenues, and creating an economy characterized by a gradual increase in the proportions of the contribution of other economic sectors in the formation of the gross domestic product, especially the agricultural sector, which adds cumulative values to the gross domestic product and constitutes a variety of financing sources for the budget and adopting early warning programs in the agricultural sector to respond to the problems resulting from these shocks at the lowest economic cost.