Carbon stock dynamics in a changing land use land cover of the Upper Awash River Basin: Implications for climate change management

Abstract

Land use and land cover changes significantly impact carbon storage capacity, potentially causing long-term climate change, as examined in the Upper Awash Basin over three decades. This study aimed to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon stocks in the Upper Awash Basin over three decades due to land use and land cover changes. Remote sensing, ArcGIS, and the InVEST model were used to map changes in land use and land cover, as well as changes in carbon storage. The model and software have proven as accurate and useful tools for mapping changes in land use, cover, and carbon storage, allowing researchers to assess environmental impacts, plan conservation strategies, and effectively monitor ecosystems. Between 1993 and 2023, forests, shrublands, and wetlands decreased by 27.7%, 41.7%, and 60.7%, respectively, while cropland and built-up areas increased by 9.7% and 154.7%, respectively. As a result, the overall carbon stock decreased by 15%, from 17,342,625 tons to 14,810,521 tons of carbon. Agriculture expansion, overexploitation of forests for wood and charcoal production, settlement, population growth, and urban development are the primary drivers of carbon loss. Despite the upper Awash River Basin’s importance for carbon storage and sequestration, changes in land use and cover increased carbon emissions, contributing to climate change. Thus, this study highlights the link between land use land cover change and shifts in carbon stocks, emphasizing the importance of sustainable land management practices for maintaining or increasing carbon storage capacity, mitigating the effects of climate change, and improving overall ecosystem function.

Keywords

• ArcGIS
• Awash River Basin
• carbon stock
• InVEST model
• land use land cover change