Enhancing Weather Forecast Accuracy Through the Integration of WRF and BP Neural Networks: A Novel Approach

Abstract

Abstract In the past century, scholars from both domestic and international communities have delved into the study of numerical weather prediction models to promptly understand meteorological factors and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events on humanity. Effective and precise prediction models enable the forecasting of meteorological conditions in the upcoming days, empowering individuals to implement proactive measures to minimize the adverse effects of extreme weather (Liang et al., 2021). The WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) modeling system is commonly used for forecasting meteorological elements. However, uncertainties terribly hamper the correctness of the forecasting results. To this end, the present study was conducted to build a secondary model on the basis of the WRF forecast model. The WRF‐BPNN model was proposed for verification after constructing the network, the temperature vertical profile and the mixing ratio vertical profile were predicted, and the results on the validation set were tested. The results showed that the WRF‐BPNN model could effectively predict the temperature profile and mixing ratio profile, presenting better performance than the traditional WRF model.

Keywords

• artificial intelligence
• machine learning
• weather forecasting
• WRF model