Long-term firn and mass balance modelling for Abramov Glacier in the data-scarce Pamir Alay

Abstract

Several studies identified heterogeneous glacier mass changes in western High Mountain Asia over the last decades. Causes for these mass change patterns are still not fully understood. Modelling the physical interactions between glacier surface and atmosphere over several decades can provide insight into relevant processes. Such model applications, however, have data needs which are usually not met in these data-scarce regions. Exceptionally detailed glaciological and meteorological data exist for the Abramov Glacier in the Pamir Alay range. In this study, we use weather station measurements in combination with downscaled reanalysis data to force a coupled surface energy balance–multilayer subsurface model for Abramov Glacier for 52 years. Available in situ data are used for model calibration and validation. We find an overall negative mass balance of −0.27 mw.e.a-1 for 1968/1969–2019/2020 and a loss of firn pore space causing a reduction of internal accumulation. Despite increasing air temperatures, we do not find an acceleration of glacier-wide mass loss over time. Such an acceleration is compensated for by increasing precipitation rates (+0.0022 mw.e.a-1, significant at a 90 % confidence level). Our results indicate a significant correlation between annual mass balance and precipitation (R2 = 0.72).