Impact of COVID-19 pandemic responses on tuberculosis incidence: insights from Shantou, China

Abstract

Abstract Background Various measures taken against the COVID-19 pandemic are not only effective in reducing the spread of the disease, but also lead to some unexpected results. This article regarded these measures as an intervention and explored their impact on the incidence of tuberculosis in Shantou, China. Methods The incidence rate and the surveillance data of tuberculosis from January 1st, 2018 to December 31st, 2021 were provided by the Shantou Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Institute. Data were divided into pre-pandemic period (January 1st, 2018 - December 31st, 2019) and pandemic periods (January 1st, 2020 - December 31st, 2021). The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) was used to analyze the trend of tuberculosis incidence prior to and during the COVID-19 epidemic. Results The results showed that the incidence of tuberculosis cases in Shantou decreased significantly (p < 0.05) during the pandemic as compared to that prior to the pandemic. Among them, the 45–64 age group and the 65 + age group have statistically significant declines. When patients were stratified by occupation, the unemployed and those working in agriculture reduced the most. Conclusions In response to the pandemic, measures like lockdowns and quarantines seem to have reduced tuberculosis incidence. However, this does not imply a true decrease. Underlying causes for the reduced true incidence need further scrutiny. Findings offer a preliminary exploration of interventions designed for one disease but functioning as unexpected results for another.

Keywords

• Tuberculosis
• Interrupted time series
• COVID-19
• Intervention
• Pandemic
• Quarantine