Analysis of Runoff Changes in the Wei River Basin, China: Confronting Climate Change and Human Activities

Abstract

Abrupt runoff reduction in the Wei River Basin (WRB) has attracted extensive attention owing to climate change and human activities. Nevertheless, previous studies have inadequately assessed the respective contributions of climate variability and human activities to runoff change on different spatial scales. Using Mann–Kendall and Pettitt’s methods, this study identified long-term (1970–2018) changes in hydro-meteorological variables. Furthermore, the Budyko-based method was used to quantify the influence of climate change and human activities on runoff change at different spatial scales of the WRB, including the whole WRB, three sub-basins, and sixteen catchments. The results show that a significant decrease trend was identified in runoff at different spatial scales within the WRB. Runoff in almost all catchments showed a significant downward trend. Temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and the parameter n showed significant increases, whereas no significant trend in precipitation was observed. The change in runoff was mainly concentrated in the mid-1990s and early 2000s. Anthropogenic activities produced a larger impact on runoff decrease in the WRB (62.8%), three sub-basins (53.9% to 65.8%), and most catchments (–47.0% to 147.3%) than climate change. Dramatic catchment characteristic changes caused by large-scale human activities were the predominant reason of runoff reduction in the WRB. Our findings provide a comprehensive understanding of the dominate factors causing runoff change and contribute to water resource management and ecosystem health conservation in the WRB.

Keywords

• runoff
• climatic variation
• land cover change
• Budyko framework
• Wei River Basin