Long-term Survival of Multiple Myeloma Patients using Cure Models

Abstract

Introduction: Multiple myeloma (MM) is a kind of blood cancer that is caused by the malfunction of plasma cells and their uncontrolled growth, which leads to a decrease in the level of immunity and the formation of bone lesions, especially in the spine, skull, pelvis, and ribs. Common symptoms in MM patients include severe bone pain, kidney problems, anemia, and frequent infections. This study aims to employ appropriate cure models to estimate the cure fraction and prognostic factors affecting overall survival (OS) in MM patients who have undergone transplantation. Materials and Methods: This study has analyzed the medical records of 52 patients with multiple myeloma who were admitted to Taleghani Hospital affiliated with Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences in Tehran from January 2010 to August 2016 and were followed up until February 2022. Four cure models were applied to the data and it determined the cure fraction in the Inverse Gaussian model is higher than in other models, so prognostic factors affecting the survival of patients were examined using this model. Results: The mean age at diagnosis was 53.07 (SD =6.4). The 5-year survival rate for MM patients was 74%, and the long-term survival rate for patients in this study was 54.7%. Using the Inverse Gaussian model, the cure fraction was estimated at 54.4% Conclusion: This study applies cure models to find prognostic factors based on pre-transplant CBC test on the survival time of MM patients who have been treated with auto-HSCT, so the number of platelets pre-transplantation and the patient's age are effective predictors for overall survival.

Keywords

• cure fraction
• inverse gaussian distribution
• multiple myeloma