تحقیقات مالی اسلامی (پیوسته) (Apr 2016)
Studying the Causality Relationship between Money and Capital Market in order to Restrain Financial Market Fluctuation within Resistive Economy Framework
Abstract
Money and capital market are among financial institutions that have significant role in economy, and coordinating synergic relationship between them could cause economic growth. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei, introduced the concept of resistive economy and communicated its executive policies in 1389. Resistive economy is among those models which have other forms in conventional economy. Within this framework, economic policies must be coordinated by recognizing internal and external pressures and fluctuations, and benefiting from the direction and interconnection among the essential pillars of economy in order to control, reduce and remove the negative effects. In this research, by studying the theoretical concepts of capital and money market relationship in conventional economy and explaining resistive economy, we want to map the role of these two markets in the resistive economy model. Besides, based on annual Granger test results in the years 1370-1392, the one-way causality relationship of capital market with money market was confirmed. Also, the regression results confirmed Granger test results and approved the causality relationship of money market with capital market in the Iranian economy. We can conclude, then, that by changing policy making in every market, we could develop another market. In case there is volatility in one market, based on the explanation about the two market interrelationship and by changing policies in the other market, we could control fluctuations and make the Iranian economy resistant against both money and capital market fluctuations. Finally, we suggest some policies in order to reinforce macroeconomic variables, money market, capital market and interrelationship between the two.
